Gül E.
Dicle Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Mühendislik Dergisi, cilt.17, sa.3, ss.1-11, 2026 (TRDizin)
Özet
Türkiye’s thermal insulation standard, TS 825, was reissued in its 2024 edition with six climate zones and, for the first time, a cooling component, and it has governed all new building permits since April 2025. The zones are assigned at province level from station records averaged over 1992–2021, which leaves two questions open: how much climate variation a single provincial class conceals, and how quickly a fixed window falls behind a warming climate. This study introduces ThermoZone-TR, a framework that recomputes the zoning from the ERA5-Land reanalysis over 1950–2025 at 0.1° resolution and evaluates it against 134 surface stations without statistical correction. Because no accessible source states the base temperatures behind the official thresholds, they were inferred from the data; heating base 18 °C with cooling base 22 °C reproduces the official 81-province assignment best, with 74% exact agreement and 94% of provinces within one zone. On average only 41% of a province’s area lies in its official zone, and discordance reaches three zones over the coastal mountain belts. National heating degree-days fell by 52.6 °C-day per decade over the record while cooling degree-days rose by 12.6 °C-day per decade, and 19% of the national territory, together with 163 of 891 districts, shifts toward warmer zones when the standard’s window is replaced by the most recent fifteen years. A physiographic random-forest surrogate with Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) attribution reproduces the zone map with 87.9% spatially blocked accuracy and identifies elevation as the dominant control, supporting zone boundaries drawn at district or grid scale in future revisions.